Warehouse automation ROI calculator

Enter a vendor quote and the labor hours you will actually stop paying. The tool returns payback, year-1 cash flow, and NPV. The starting numbers are examples. Published automation prices, each with its source, are on the warehouse automation guide.

This tool has no ads, sponsored placements, or affiliate links. Updated 2026-11-03.

Example inputs for the formula. Type your vendor quote, payroll, and the hours you can actually stop paying for. Published prices and payback examples, with sources, are on the warehouse automation guide.

Start from an example

Each card loads a round planning case. It does not load a market study. Editing any project field clears the card if the numbers no longer match it.

Project economics

Equipment, install, integration, freight, tax, and training from your quote.

Maintenance, software, energy, and support you will pay after go-live.

10% is a blank hurdle rate so the NPV formula has a starting point. Ask finance for the rate your company actually uses. The discount rate changes NPV. It does not change undiscounted payback.

21% is the federal corporate income-tax rate in 26 U.S.C. § 11, used only so the tax line is not blank. Change it to your combined rate. The model uses straight-line depreciation over the life you enter.

Savings inputs

$20 is a blank wage so the formula can run. Build a loaded rate in the labor cost estimator, then paste it here. Count a person only if you will not backfill the hours.

2,080 is 40 hours times 52 weeks. This field changes labor and productivity savings. Use your actual paid hours, including overtime you will remove.

Productivity savings equal lift times remaining headcount times paid hours times the loaded rate. Remaining headcount changes the result only when lift is above 0. Leave both at 0 unless those hours become overtime you cut or work you no longer hire for.

Error savings equal the reduction percent times the monthly cost times 12. Either field changes the result only when the other is above 0. Use chargebacks, reships, and rework you can document.

Results from these inputs

Payback period
3.6 yrs
Year-1 net cash flow
$27,964
NPV (10%)
$36,140
Simple ROI (7 yrs)
96%
Longer than three and a half years on these inputs
The same 2023 MHI article said some industries plan mobile-automation returns over 4–5 years. Keep the project only if capacity, safety, or the building case still holds once the cash payback is this long.
Cumulative cash flow and discounted cash flow
Lifetime savings breakdown (7 yrs)
Direct labor$291,200 (100%)
YearNet cash flowCumulativeDiscountedCumulative (PV)
Y0 (capex)-$100,000-$100,000-$100,000-$100,000
Y1$27,964-$72,036$25,422-$74,578
Y2$27,964-$44,072$23,111-$51,467
Y3$27,964-$16,108$21,010-$30,458
Y4$27,964$11,856$19,100-$11,358
Y5$27,964$39,820$17,363$6,006
Y6$27,964$67,784$15,785$21,791
Y7$27,964$95,748$14,350$36,140
How this is calculated: Year-1 net cash flow = (headcount removed × loaded hourly rate × paid hours) + (productivity lift × remaining headcount × paid hours × loaded hourly rate) + (error reduction × monthly error cost × 12) − annual operating cost. That pretax figure is multiplied by (1 − tax rate), then the straight-line depreciation tax shield (investment ÷ useful life × tax rate) is added. NPV discounts that annual net cash flow at the hurdle rate you enter. Payback is the year cumulative undiscounted cash flow crosses zero. Every numeric field above is in that formula. Productivity and error fields stay at zero until you enter a figure you can document.

How to use this calculator

Pick an example only to see the shape of the form. Then overwrite capital cost with the quote, including install and integration. Overwrite headcount with people you will not backfill.

Paid hours per person default to 2,080, which is 40 hours times 52 weeks. Change that field if your crew works a different schedule. It is on the form because it changes the savings.

Leave productivity lift and error reduction at zero unless you have measured hours or error dollars. Those two pairs do nothing until both sides of the pair are filled in, so a leftover percentage cannot create savings by itself.

Set the discount rate to the hurdle rate finance gave you. The 10% in the box is a blank starting point. NPV uses it. Simple payback does not.

Pair this with the sourced guides

Published payback statements

Use this table as a reading list, then run your own quote above. The rows are what each source said. They are not a median of projects we surveyed.

SourceWhat it states
MHI, April 10, 2025Most companies look for a robotics ROI in about two years.
MHI, March 16, 2023Mobile-automation planning horizons of 12–24 months, 24–36 months, or 4–5 years.
AutoStore on THG40% lower variable labor costs, and a reported payback of about two years.
AutoStore on PietschCurrent payback of 7.5 years; 2.5 years if the business plan is achieved.
UltimationSimple conveyors can pay back in days or weeks. Larger systems it implements often pay back in 3–6 months.

Frequently asked questions

Year-1 net cash flow equals headcount you will stop paying, times the loaded hourly rate, times paid hours per year, plus any productivity and error savings you enter, minus annual operating cost. That pretax amount is multiplied by one minus your tax rate, and a straight-line depreciation tax shield is added. Payback is when cumulative cash flow crosses zero. NPV discounts the annual net cash flow at the hurdle rate you type in. The formula is also printed under the results.
No. The cards load round planning examples so the formula has a starting point. They are not a 2026 survey and they are not taken from MHI, MODEX, or ARC. Replace the investment with your vendor quote. Published prices we could verify are collected on the warehouse automation cost guide, next to the source for each figure.
Capital investment, annual operating cost, useful life, discount rate, tax rate, headcount removed, loaded hourly rate, and paid hours per person all change the cash flow. The discount rate changes NPV and does not change undiscounted payback. Remaining headcount changes the result only when productivity lift is above zero. Monthly error cost changes the result only when error reduction is above zero, and the reverse is also true. Both of those pairs start at zero so an empty box does not invent savings.
MHI wrote on April 10, 2025 that most companies look for a robotics ROI in about two years (https://www.mhi.org/blog/126102/maximizing-roi-and-mitigating-risks-with-robotics). A March 16, 2023 MHI article on mobile automation described 12–24 months, 24–36 months, and 4–5 years as planning horizons depending on the economy and the industry (https://www.mhi.org/blog/126022/navigating-the-mobile-automation-landscape). Single-site reports differ: THG’s AutoStore case describes about two years, and Pietsch’s case describes 7.5 years now and 2.5 years if its plan is met. Those sources are linked from the automation guide. This calculator’s result is only as good as the quote and the hours you enter.
21% is the federal corporate income-tax rate in 26 U.S.C. § 11 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/11), used so the tax line is not blank. It is not a warehouse benchmark. Change it if your combined federal and state rate is different. Depreciation in this model is straight-line over the useful life you enter. A tax advisor handles MACRS and any bonus depreciation that applies to the asset.
The model counts only the fields you fill in. A quote that omits integration, training, floor work, fire-system changes, or a slow go-live will look better here than it will in the building. Add those dollars to the capital investment, or lower the hours you claim, before you treat the payback as a budget.